The August auction continued the downward trend in awarded EEG price levels, falling below 50 EUR/MWh for the first time since 2018. The volume-weighted average price came in at 47.9 EUR/MWh, down from 50.6 EUR/MWh in the previous auction in May, and now exactly on par with the last solar auction result. The range of awarded prices was narrower than in the prior auction, as both the upper and lower ends retreated, with awarded prices ranging from 44.8 to 49.8 EUR/MWh.
The auction continued to be oversubscribed, with less than half of the submitted projects awarded. The submitted volume has fallen continuously over the past four auctions, down by about 1 GW from 6.4 GW to 5.3 GW compared with the previous auction.
This was the second-to-last onshore wind EEG auction under the current framework. The final auction will take place in December, before new auctions with two-sided CfDs begin under EEG 2027.
The 2027 auctions face regulatory uncertainty, driven by both the EEG’s approval still being pending and the planned introduction of capacity grid fees for projects awarded from 2027 onward. This uncertainty is prompting many developers to try to secure the subsidy this year, resulting in highly competitive auctions.
This competitive environment, combined with falling awarded prices, is making it increasingly attractive to sign a PPA on top of the EEG subsidy. At the same time, rising Power Forward Prices are pushing PPA Fair Values higher, widening the gap between auction results and PPA prices. Compared with the auction average, a 1-year Pay-as-produced (PAP) PPA starting in 2027 can currently deliver a hedged price uplift of more than 50 EUR/MWh, while a 2-year PAP PPA still enables an uplift of 40 EUR/MWh. These PPA Fair Values also include settlement during negative hours, which the EEG auctions no longer provide.
Submitted and awarded capacity in the onshore wind EEG auctions (in GW). Source: Bundesnetzagentur, Pexapark.
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