US Market Briefing
The Tale of Two Grids: ERCOT vs PJM
The same summer heat hit two very different grids. PJM priced scarcity while ERCOT engineered it away. Pexapark’s U.S. analysis team presented this ERCOT and PJM market update to customers in New York. Fill out the form to request the deck.
ERCOT
The risk is building too much. Value is being cannibalized.
PJM
The risk is waiting too long. The shortage is the value.
Get the Q3 customer briefing slides
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What’s Inside the Deck
Seventeen slides of Pexapark analysis on ERCOT and PJM, drawing on our Q3 2026 Price Benchmarks, Fair Values and Deal Tracker. Here’s what it covers:
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Scarcity
One Summer, Two PeaksHow record July 2026 demand produced scarcity pricing in PJM while ERCOT’s battery fleet suppressed it.479 USD/MWhPJM West day-ahead peak vs. 378 USD/MWh real-time in ERCOT, far from its 5,000 USD/MWh price cap -
Interconnection
ERCOT Is Testing Whether the Demand Is Real. PJM Is Testing the Supply.Large-load requests, Batch Zero, and the 201.5 GW of nameplate capacity qualified in PJM’s Interconnection Cycle 1.~5xERCOT large-load requests vs. record peak demand -
Capacity & Storage
One Battery, Two Bets: Accreditation vs. VolatilityPJM capacity value at the cap by technology and ELCC rating, set against declining ERCOT TB2 revenue and 7-year toll offers.−73%ERCOT 2-hour BESS TB2 revenue, 2023 to 2026 YTD -
Pricing
ERCOT Sellers Stood Still While Value Moved Away From ThemQuarterly PPA offer ranges against daily Fair Value, and why PJM offers instead moved with scarcity.20% → 43%ERCOT solar offer premium over Fair Value, Q2 to Q3 2026 -
Buyer Trends
Location and Tenor Are Mispriced in Both MarketsOffer premiums by hub, the absence of a 15-year premium, and how hyperscalers and utilities are reshaping demand.6Hub and technology combinations compared across ERCOT and PJM -
Outlook
The Next 120 Days Will Decide Who Blinks FirstA calendar of federal, ERCOT and PJM catalysts, with positioning views for buyers, sellers and storage investors, plus our Q4 call.8Dated catalysts tracked from October 2026 to February 2027
Who the Briefing Is For
Buyers
Corporate and Utility Offtakers
Where your leverage sits in each market, and how to structure tenor, start date and pass-through clauses.
Sellers
Developers and IPPs
How current offers compare with Fair Value, and which assumptions to document before the PJM backstop restarts.
Capital
Storage Owners and Investors
How to underwrite real-time optimization, duration and accreditation risk across the two ISOs.
“In Texas, the risk is building too much. In PJM, it is waiting too long. In both, buyers pay for one thing above all: firm power that shows up soon.”
Presented by Sylvia Leyva Martinez, Head of Market Analysis U.S., Pexapark
Pexapark is the price intelligence platform for clean energy, covering ERCOT, PJM and Europe with market analysis, consensus views, valuation modeling and transaction support.