According to data published by GSE (Gestore Servizi Energetici – Italy’s public body in charge of renewable auctions), of the 9.5 GW of solar bids submitted, roughly 7 GW were priced between 55–60 EUR/MWh, while about 2.5 GW came in below 55 EUR/MWh. In contrast, bids for onshore wind were more concentrated: approximately 1.5 GW were offered between 73–82 EUR/MWh, and around 450 MW fell below 73 EUR/MWh.
The solar segment was oversubscribed by around 1.5 GW, reflecting strong competition and developer appetite for long-term support, whereas the onshore wind segment was undersubscribed by about 0.5 GW. Market participants told Pexapark this low level for onshore wind was likely due to subsidy levels being too low to justify participation for many developers, reflecting higher development and capital costs.
For comparison, Pexapark’s PPA Fair Value for a 10-year Pay-as-produced contract with a January 2027 start date were valued at 58.7 EUR/MWh for solar and 72.98 EUR/MWh for wind. This means that, for solar, the auction bids were largely aligned with or below the PPA Fair Value. In contrast, wind projects appear to reflect a more cautious market response. Pexpark data showed the upper end of the PPA offer ranges offered by sellers reached nearly 101 EUR/MWh, suggesting that several potential participants may have opted out of bidding at FER-X levels.
In addition, it’s important to note the scale of additions resulting from the FER-X auction far exceed anything awarded under the previous FER-1 regime, which were heavily undersubscribed, largely as a result of long permitting timelines limiting the number of available projects. In fact, the previous scheme allocated only 2.7 GW of solar capacity and 3.4 GW of onshore wind over the course of the entire 2020-2024 period, meaning less than 40% was awarded out of 15.6 GW on offer. This low level of competition also resulted in awarded prices mostly remaining around the ceiling levels, nearly 78 EUR/MWh (set for both technologies) in the 16th and final round.
According to a local market participant: “Permitting has improved, we’re seeing in particular the Government become a lot more active, and the nearly 12 GW permitted for participation in FER-X reflects that. The real challenge now has become pricing. PPA prices are trending lower, and we’re starting to see a disconnect between what buyers are willing to pay and what sellers can realistically offer. In particular the price of land suitable for siting renewable projects have increased significantly lately, and even if you hit these slightly higher levels thanks to FER-X, the conditions of a government scheme though aren’t something that can be replicated in PPAs.”
GSE also added in a note that the 273 expressions of interest had been received for double the 1.6 GW capacity offered under the second round of FER-X, which excludes participants from China or sourcing components from China, further showcasing the high level of interest in the new schemes.
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