Negative electricity prices reached a record high in April, with 75 hours seeing prices at or below zero. Pexapark’s analysis reveals that around 27% of solar output was exposed to negative pricing — a significant increase from last year’s 5%. According to Pexapark data, April saw the Polish solar capture factor hit an all-time low at 0.54.
Over the past months, the Polish transmission system operator PSE has been forced to issue an unprecedented number of non-market redispatch orders. In April alone, such interventions occurred over 25 days, resulting in a record 223 GWh of curtailed solar generation. In the first four months of 2025, total non-market curtailments reached 400 GWh, with the overwhelming majority of this impacting solar.
Early data for May 2025 suggest that non-market redispatch volumes remained similarly elevated, despite fewer hours with negative electricity prices and a smaller share of solar output exposed to them (13.5% in lieu of 27% in April). For example, on 20 May, such measures affected up to 1.7 GW of solar capacity around noon time.
In 2024, Poland experienced a rapid expansion of solar energy, adding 4 GW of new capacity, with the country’s total installed solar now exceeding 22 GW. According to projections from PSE, an additional 17 GW is expected to be added by 2030.
In April 2025, solar accounted for 16.5% of the predominantly coal-based Polish electricity generation mix, while onshore wind contributed approximately 13%. Solar generation reached a peak of around 2.2 TWh — an increase of nearly 25% year-on-year.
The trend goes in line with tendencies observed across Europe, where the exponential rollout of solar has triggered a surge in sub-zero electricity prices, sharply declining capture factors, and increasing curtailment of solar output, particularly around midday.
In Poland, negative prices and solar curtailment are likely to reach new highs until a critical mass of BESS and other flexibility assets become operational. Currently, only 200 MW of BESS is online. However, momentum is building. The latest T-4 Capacity Market awarded contracts to 2.5 GW of de-rated BESS capacity, while a new capex support scheme aims to support 2.5 GW of new installations.
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